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雷曼倒台十年后,隐痛仍在

Lucinda Shen 2018年10月02日

2008年金融危机的后遗症仍隐隐作痛,加剧了美国金融业版图长期调整的趋势。

2008年,华尔街巨头Lucinda Shen兄弟轰然崩塌,拉开了金融危机大幕。从很多方面来看,此后美国经济恢复得相当平稳。

失业率降至数十年来低点,美股一路攀升至历史高点。美国人也前所未有地富有,今年早些时候家庭财产总计达到100万亿美元。

然而与此同时,2008年金融危机的后遗症仍隐隐作痛,加剧了美国金融业版图长期调整的趋势。

举例来说,美国年度国内生产总值增速尚未达到3%,工资涨幅也自2009年以来停滞不前。

以下是尚未恢复到衰退以前水平的领域:

美国普通家庭

总体来看,美国人比以往任何时候都富有。但财富更多流向富裕人群,穷人境况并无明显好转。

根据在线金融咨询公司Betterment于9月发布的研究报告,受2008年金融危机影响的消费者约有65%均表示尚未恢复。

这可不仅是感觉,政府数据也能提供支持。最新的2016年净值中位数达到97,300美元,但仍低于2007年净值中位数120,600美元,甚至低于互联网泡沫期间。另一方面,最富有的10%美国人在衰退期间的财富缩水程度较低,之后财富不断累积,而且已超过衰退前10%。

“这反映出,数十年来财富增长主要集中在原有的富裕家庭。”德意志银行的首席国际经济学家托尔斯腾·斯洛克最近发给客户的报告中写道。“上一次衰退期间,美国普通家庭遭受了严重打击,至今尚未恢复。”

部分原因在于,与富人相比,普通家庭购房承担更多债务。因此当经济衰退来袭房价降低时,底层的90%受创更严重。

非裔和西裔美国家庭

整体而言,2008年金融危机之前非裔和西裔家庭就不太富裕。与白人相比,他们年收入更低,衰退期间抵押贷款的比例更高。

结果衰退之后,非裔和西裔家庭的财富与白人家庭财富的差距继续扩大。

2016年白人家庭财富平均净值为171,000美元,比2007年的高点减少约13%,但非裔和西裔家庭的财务状况下滑更严重。2016年黑人家庭财富净值中位数比危机前减少了30%,仅为17,150美元。消费者财务调查显示,西裔家庭财富中位数减少了15%,为20,720美元。

农村经济

衰退后,不仅家庭间不平等现象日益扩大,不同地区之间差距也类似,富裕社区复苏更明显。

“伴随着经济扩张,城乡之间差距越来越大。”斯洛克写道。

根据经济创新集团2017年分析,本次复苏期间就业增长几乎全在所谓的“成功”地区,即高中学历以上人士更多、贫困率更低的地区,也包括一些其他指标。2008年至2015年间排前20%的地区就业岗位增加了270万个。

同期,排名后80%的地区就业岗位则减少了150万个。

相关指标的变化趋势与2008年金融危机之前基本一致,即制造业和采矿业等领域就业人数下降,因为企业有更经济的选择,例如自动化。

不过,鹿特丹管理学院首席经济学家乔·布鲁塞拉斯表示,2018年的金融危机可能推动一些企业主加速转型,企业被迫裁员并投资转型机械化,努力挺过危机。

不少年轻人蹭父母住房

2008年金融危机后,房价不断上涨,工资涨幅却不温不火,不少年轻人只得赖在家里蹭父母。

危机后留在家里的成年人比例不断上升。根据房地产网站Zillow统计,目前24至36岁的年轻人里约有22.5%与父母同住,而2007年该比例还是16.1%。

2008年金融危机之前就已有该趋势,可能危机爆发使之加剧。

以前年轻人刚工作时更多选择租房。Zillow经济研究和推广主管斯凯勒·奥尔森表示,开发商建造租赁房产成本越来越高,分区固定也越发严格,导致租赁房产变少,租金也水涨船高。

与此同时,房价已经超过衰退前水平,2018年二季度美国房主比例降至64.3%,此前曾高达69%。

危机造成的心理阴影

消费者并没有忘记金融危机带来的痛苦。

有个重要迹象,比起经济衰退前几年人们爱储蓄多了。2007年消费者将3.1%至4.4%用于储蓄,今年7月这一数字为6.7%。

“人们经历过信任崩溃,对经济和资本主义也失去信心。”布鲁塞拉斯说。 “这是后危机时代的重要转变。所以美国人民决定下一次衰退来临之前加紧储蓄并不奇怪。”(财富中文网)

译者:Pessy

审校:夏林

In many ways, the U.S. economy appears to have made a smooth recovery since the bankruptcy of Wall Street titan Lehman Brothers marked the start of the 2008 financial crisis.

Unemployment has hit multi decade lows, while the U.S. stock market has continued to reach all-time highs. As a nation, Americans are also wealthier than ever, reaching $100 trillion in household worth earlier this year.

But at the same time, the effects of the financial crisis of 2008 still linger, exacerbating longer term trends that have helped shift much of the American financial landscape.

Annual Gross Domestic Product in the U.S., for example, has yet to reach above 3%, while wage growth has remained tepid since 2009.

Here are five other areas that have yet to return to pre-recession levels:

The Average American Household

As a collective group, Americans are wealthier than ever. But the wealth has flowed more so to the already wealthy than the less affluent.

According to a September study from online financial advisory firm Betterment, about 65% of consumers who were affected by the 2008 financial crisis said they had not yet recovered.

It’s more than just a feeling, as supported by government statistics. Median net worth in 2016, the most up-to-date data, hit $97,300—still below the $120,600 median from 2007, and even during that of the Dotcom bubble. The top 10% of wealthiest Americans, on the other hand, saw their wealth decline less during the recession, and have since exceeded their pre-recession wealth levels by 10%.

“This partially reflects the decades-long tendency for wealth gains to accrue mostly to already wealth households,” Deutsche Bank chief international economist Torsten Slok wrote in a recent note to clients. “The typical U.S. family was hit very hard in the last recession and has yet to recover.”

Part of the reason for the divergence: The typical U.S. family often took on more debt to buy a home, compared to their wealthier countrymen. So, when the recession hit and lowered home values, the bottom 90% were more heavily impacted by the fallout.

African-American and Hispanic Families

As a whole, African-American and Hispanic families were less affluent leading up to the 2008 financial crisis. They earned less annually, and had a higher percentage of their mortgages fall underwater during the recession, when compared to their white counterparts.

As a result, the gap between their wealth and the wealth of white families had continued to widen since the recession.

While the median net worth of white families in 2016—$171,000—is roughly 13% below the group’s 2007 peak, the finances of African-American and Hispanic households has fallen more dramatically. The median net worth of black families in 2016 was 30% below pre-crisis levels, at $17,150. That same figure was down 15%, at $20,720, for Hispanic families, according to the Survey of Consumer Finances.

Rural Economies

Perhaps mirroring this phenomenon of widening inequality following a recession, the recovery has also largely fallen to more affluent communities.

“This expansion’s benefits are split between urban and rural areas,” Slok wrote.

Based on a 2017 analysis from the Economic Innovation Group, nearly all of the job growth in this recovery has been in so-called “successful” zip codes—areas with more high school diplomas and lower poverty rates, among other metrics. The top 20% of these zip codes added 2.7 million jobs between 2008 to 2015.

The bottom 80% of zip codes meanwhile shed 1.5 million jobs in the same period.

These shifting metrics follow trends that have existed before the 2008 financial crisis: Namely, declining jobs in areas such as manufacturing and mining as employers opt for cheaper options, such as automation.

But the financial crisis of 2018 may have helped speed up the transition for some business owners, says RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas, pushing companies to layoff workers and invest in machinery in the hopes of surviving the crisis.

Young People Are Still Living at Home

Following the 2008 financial crisis, wage growth remained tepid despite rising home values—forcing more young people to hunker down with mom and dad.

Since the financial crisis, the percentage has only risen. According to real estate marketplace Zillow, about 22.5% of people between the ages of 24 and 36 lived with their parents. That figure was 16.1% in 2007.

But the reason for the increase may predate the financial crisis of 2018, even if the meltdown exacerbated the trend.

Traditionally, young people rent homes when they are just entering the workforce. But building rental properties has grown more expensive for developers, as zoning regulations have become tougher over time, leading to fewer rental properties and higher rents, according to Zillow’s Skylar Olsen, director of economic research and outreach.

At the same time, housing prices have exceeded pre-recession levels, pushing the percent of homeowners in the country to 64.3% in the second quarter of 2018. In comparison, that figure reached as high as 69% previously.

The Psychological Shadow of the Crisis

Consumers haven’t forgotten the pains of the financial crisis.

One major sign: They’re saving more than they did in the years leading up to the recession. While consumers saved about 3.1% to 4.4% of their disposable income in 2007, that figure was 6.7% in July.

“There’s been an erosion of trust and loss of confidence in the economy, and capitalism,” said Brusuelas. “That was the major development post-crisis. So it’s not surprising that the American public has decided to increase its own pace of savings in anticipation of the next downturn.”

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