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油价为何突然大涨

彭博社 2018年10月21日

有观点认为,美国制裁沙特可能使油价突破每桶200美元,从而给全球经济带来巨大灾难。

油价上涨的原因是交易商在评估沙特的威胁——作为全球最大的石油出口国,沙特表示如果因为政府批评人士失踪而受到制裁,将采取报复措施。

交易商将沙特外交部的声明视为其可能把石油供应作为政治武器的警告,受此影响,纽约时段原油期货价格一度上涨1.9%。但油价随后回吐之前涨幅,原因是人们怀疑作为石油输出国组织(OPEC)最强大的成员,沙特是否会采取这样的极端方式。

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普已表示,如果沙特和记者贾马尔·哈苏吉的失踪有关,将对其实施“严厉惩罚”。倘若沙特真以石油资源进行反击,就将放弃几十年来奉行的原油高于政治的原则。在最近和加拿大的外交口水战中,尽管沙特切断了两国的大多数经济联系,但沙特国有石油公司沙特阿美仍在向一家加拿大炼油厂提供石油。

瑞银集团驻苏黎世分析师吉奥瓦尼·斯陶诺沃认为:“市场将体现出一定的风险溢价。虽然近年来沙特一直没有将石油用于政治,但和特朗普总统一样,沙特王储也不是普通政治人物,还不清楚今后他将作何反应。但如果沙特的原油出口保持不变,这样的风险溢价将再次消失。”

由于需求前景变差,加之全球股市暴跌,促使投资者规避大宗商品等风险资产,本月初创下四年新高后油价已回落6%以上。不过,由于美国的制裁将限制伊朗的石油出口,交易商仍怀疑OPEC及其伙伴能否弥补伊朗的潜在供应损失。

在纽约商品交易所,11月交割的西德州中质原油期货一度上涨1.36美元,报每桶72.70美元,伦敦时间本周一上午10:16的价格为71.54美元。上周其价格下跌4%,降至71.34美元。本周一的总成交量超过百日均线18%左右。

在伦敦ICE欧洲期货交易所,12月交割的布伦特原油期货最高涨幅达到1.49美元,或1.9%,报每桶81.92美元。上周该期货下滑4.4%,降至80.43美元,创4月初以来的最大单周跌幅。同月交割的全球基准原油期货价格比西德州中质原油高9.53美元。

哈苏吉10月2日进入沙特驻伊斯坦布尔领事馆后失踪。美国政府越发认为沙特否认与此有任何关系的说法站不住脚。《华盛顿邮报》报道,土耳其官员表示,他们掌握的录音录像显示沙特安全部队小组控制了哈苏吉,随后将其杀害并肢解了他的尸体。

作为OPEC的最大产油国,沙特的作用已经变得更为关键,市场正在等待该组织主要成员弥补伊朗、委内瑞拉等国的生产缺口。1973-1974年沙特带头进行石油禁运时确实将原油当作武器,这次的威胁则让沙特和美国的亲密关系出现了意外转折。

虽然特朗普不愿取消数百万美元的沙特军售项目,因为担心此举会让这位盟友转投俄罗斯或中国,但美国政府正在讨论其他惩罚措施,包括降低外交等级和制裁沙特官员。

沙特国有媒体阿拉伯电视台负责人图尔基·阿尔达克希尔发表文章称,美国制裁沙特可能使油价突破每桶200美元,从而给全球经济带来巨大灾难。沙特驻华盛顿大使馆高级顾问费萨尔·本·法尔汉则在推特上表示,这些话不代表沙特政府的态度。(财富中文网)

译者:Charlie

审校:夏林

Oil rose as traders assessed a threat by Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest crude exporter, to retaliate against any punishment over the disappearance of a government critic.

Futures climbed as much as 1.9% in New York as traders viewed the Saudi Foreign Ministry statement as a warning that the kingdom could use oil supplies as a political weapon. Yet gains later eased amid doubts that OPEC’s most powerful member would take such an extreme course.

U.S. President Donald Trump has promised “ severe punishment” should Saudi Arabia be linked to the disappearance of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. If the Saudis do use their crude resources to hit back, it would be a break from their decades-old policy of putting petroleum above politics. During a recent diplomatic spat with Canada, state-owned producer Aramco continued to supply a refinery there even though Riyadh severed most other economic links.

“The market will price in some risk premium,” said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS Group AG in Zurich. “While Saudi Arabia hasn’t used politics in recent years, its crown prince — like President Trump — isn’t an ordinary politician and it’s unclear how he’ll react going forward. But if Saudi crude exports remain unchanged, this risk premium will disappear again.”

Crude has retreated more than 6% after reaching a four-year high earlier this month as a darkening demand outlook, coupled with global stock-market routs, spur investors to shun risky assets including commodities. Still, traders continue to speculate whether the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners can offset potential supply losses from Iran as U.S. sanctions are set to curb oil exports from the Persian Gulf state.

West Texas Intermediate for November delivery rose as much as $1.36 to $72.70 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and was at $71.54 as of 10:16 a.m. London time. The contract slid 4% to $71.34 last week. Total volume traded Monday was about 18% above the 100-day average.

Brent for December settlement climbed as much as $1.49, or 1.9%, to $81.92 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Prices declined 4.4% to $80.43 last week, the biggest weekly drop since early April. The global benchmark crude traded at a $9.53 premium to WTI for the same month.

Khashoggi hasn’t been seen since entering the Saudi consulate in Istanbul on Oct. 2. The U.S. administration is said to increasingly regard the kingdom’s denial of any involvement in his disappearance as untenable. Turkish officials say they have audio and video recordings showing a Saudi security team detained the journalist before killing him and dismembering his body, according to the Washington Post.

As OPEC’s top producer, Saudi Arabia has taken on an even more crucial role as the market awaits moves from key producers to make up for lost barrels from Iran to Venezuela. Although the kingdom did use energy as a weapon when it led an oil embargo in 1973-1974, its current threats mark a surprising turn in an otherwise warm relationship with the U.S.

While Trump is reluctant to cancel multimillion-dollar arms sales to Saudi Arabia out of concern its ally will turn to Russia or China instead, a range of other punishments are under discussion within the administration, including downgrading diplomatic relations and sanctioning Saudi officials.

Turki Al Dakhil, who heads the Saudi state-owned Arabiya news network, wrote in an article that U.S. sanctions against Saudi Arabia could wreak havoc on the global economy by taking oil prices beyond $200 a barrel. Faisal bin Farhan, a senior adviser to the Saudi embassy in Washington, said on Twitter that those comments don’t represent the Saudi leadership.

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