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新兴市场股市跌势难止,下半年还会有新低

彭博社 2018年07月12日

某投行认为,新兴市场下半年还可能再创新低。

dowell Getty Images

今年,新兴市场股票的无情雪崩让它们变得相对便宜,至少从预期市盈率来看,达到了最近两年多来的最低点。

明晟新兴市场指数(MSCI Emerging Markets Index)已经跌到了历史平均值11.4以下,如今约为11.2,是2016年初以来的最低点。今年早些时候,它曾升至13.3,随后美元上涨冲击了新兴市场的股市。

发展中国家的股市在2017年表现抢眼,猛涨35%,今年却下跌了近9%。美国上调利率、贸易紧张和发展前景每况愈下都抑制了投资者对于风险资产的兴趣。日益严峻的背景下,分析师也开始下调企业利润的预期值。原本按照预测,企业利润将会延续过去几年的涨势,在今年进一步提高。从今年4月开始,明晟参考跟踪指数的预计每股收益就在不断下滑。

瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)亚太区的首席投资官约翰·伍兹表示,到今年9月,股价可能还会更低。他在接受Bloomberg Radio采访时称:“我确实认为估值看起来很有诱惑力。在夏天的这几个月里,流动性依然不足,股市还可能出现短期的继续下行。”(财富中文网)

译者:严匡正 

This year’s unrelenting slide in emerging-market stocks makes them relatively cheap, at least judging by a price-to-estimated-earnings ratio that’s now hovering at the lowest in more than two years.

The ratio for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index has fallen below its historical average of 11.4 and has now reached about 11.2, the lowest levels since early 2016. It rose to 13.3 earlier this year before a rising dollar sideswiped emerging equities.

Developing-nation stocks slid almost 9 percent this year after a stellar 35 percent rally in 2017. Rising U.S. rates, trade tension and worsening growth outlooks have all dampened investors’ appetite for riskier assets. The more challenging backdrop also led analysts to start reducing forecasts for corporate profits, which had been expected to underscore a rally this year after rising in recent years. Estimated per-share earnings for the MSCI benchmark have been falling since April.

Credit Suisse’s Asia-Pacific chief investment officer, John Woods, says stocks may get even cheaper through September. “I do think valuations are looking compelling” in emerging markets, he said in an interview on Bloomberg Radio. “There’s some short-term downside likely over the illiquid summer months.”

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