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马斯克《纽约时报》专访让人闹心,特斯拉做空者大赚10亿美金

David Z. Morris 2018年08月22日

一些较悲观的分析师认为特斯拉股价会跌到每股200美元以下。

下注特斯拉股价会下跌的投资者——即所谓“空头”——自马斯克首次发推谈公司私有化后,已赚取12亿美元。《纽约时报》对马斯克作了一次信息详尽的专访,此后特斯拉股价下跌9%,空头所赚的大头也来自周五当天。

证券分析公司S3 Partners周五发表的一篇报道算了这笔帐。周五的大跌,扭转了马斯克8月7日发推文“考虑将特斯拉以每股420美元私有化”后股价一路上涨的势头,420美元比当时特斯拉的市价溢出约18%。

据S3的文章透露,特斯拉股价自马斯克发推文后上涨,使得做空者损失了13亿美元,但很快情况清晰了,马斯克夸大了其资金来源的确定性,而证券交易委员会也开始就其声明展开调查,这些使得股价回跌。周五,《纽约时报》的专访,详述了马斯克几周内共120小时的工作状况,谈到他如何缺少社交生活以及依赖唑吡坦才能入睡,这个专访使得特斯拉股价一天内下跌9%,10天内共计下跌19%。这跌法让空头赚了25亿美元,除去损失后净赚12亿美元。

S3解释,上述所有数字都是按市值计算的,也就是说是基于当前的价格,而不论交易商是否实际上平仓套现。据S3的消息,尽管能获得大额的短期账面收入,仅有4%的空头选择平仓。一些较悲观的分析师,包括高盛的大卫·塔姆波里诺,认为特斯拉股价会跌到每股200美元以下。

在美国股市,特斯拉是被做空最多的股票。尽管空头们近期赚了,但据S3的报道,长期做空特斯拉的空头们自2016年已经损失了50亿美元,因同期特斯拉的股价涨了大约65%。(财富中文网)

译者:宣峰

Investors betting that Tesla stock will lose value — so-called “shorts” — have made $1.2 billion since CEO Elon Musk first tweeted about taking the company private. Much of that gain came on Friday, after the New York Times published a revealing, emotional interview with Musk that drove Tesla stock down nearly 9%.

The tally comes from a report released Friday by stock analytics firm S3 Partners. The Friday collapse helped reverse a price spike after Musk’s August 7 Tweet saying he was “considering taking Tesla private at $420,” about 18% higher than the stock’s market value at the time.

According to S3, the subsequent surge in Tesla stock cost short positions $1.3 billion. But soon after, it became clear that Musk had exaggerated the certainty of his funding, and the SEC began a probe of his statements, driving the stock back down. On Friday, the Times interview with Musk detailed his 120-hour work weeks, lack of social life, and reliance on Ambien to sleep. That sent the stock down 9% in one day, for a total drop of 19% over 10 days. That gave $2.5 billion back to the shorts, for a net gain of $1.2 billion since Musk’s going-private tweet.

All of these numbers, as S3 notes, are mark-to-market — that is, they are based on current prices, whether or not traders actually closed their positions to cash out. According to S3, only 4% of shorts have done so, despite their big short-term paper gains. Some bearish analysts, including David Tamberrino at Goldman Sachs, have said the stock will drop below $200 per share.

Tesla is the most shorted stock in the U.S. stock market. Despite their recent gains, S3 reports long-term shorts have lost $5 billion since 2016, with Tesla stock still up roughly 65% over that span.

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