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投资理财

昔日的明星暴跌不止,现在可以抄底吗?

彭博社 2018年10月16日

对于关注腾讯股票的人来说,回答这个问题迫在眉睫。

是不是该抄底全球股市第一大暴跌股了?

对于关注腾讯股票的人来说,回答这个问题迫在眉睫。这家中国互联网巨头股价史无前例的暴跌正在加剧,上周四6.8%的大崩盘后,腾讯股票总价相比今年1月末,已蒸发2520亿美元,成为史上最大规模的股东财富缩水事件。腾讯股票是新兴市场中持有率最广的股票之一,已经史无前例地连跌10个交易日。

正当世界各地的投资者热议科技股领跑全球股市上涨的好日子是否已经到头了,腾讯的行情恰好成了一个关键的市场风向标。从公司2004年首次公开发售股票到今年1月,投资回报率高达67000%,远高于全球股市的任何一个大盘股,腾讯股票今年的跳水也同样“引领”了全球科技股的暴跌潮,无论是纽交所还是东京证券交易所的股票。一些证券经理说,现在还远没有到底。

“腾讯是家好公司,我们也仍然喜欢这家公司,但现在它简直包含了投资人避之不及的全部元素。,”巴黎Constance Associes公司的创始人兼董事长弗吉尼亚·罗伯特表示。在彭博进行数据跟踪的所有公司中,Constance Associes的全球科技基金今年的业绩超过了99%的同行。罗伯特减持了腾讯股票,称自己在腾讯对自己的业务发展进行更清楚的说明前将不再增持。

腾讯发言人简·易普未回应请其进行评论的要求。

腾讯创立于1998年,创始人马化腾如今已经是亿万富翁,腾讯凭借其广受欢迎的网络游戏业务、支付系统和社交平台微信,近年来得到了投资者的青睐。这家总部在深圳的公司在几亿中国人的生活中都扮演着不可或缺的角色,因此在过去十年实现了年均48%的收入增长,比苹果35%的增长还要高。

现在越来越多人开始怀疑这种增长是否可以持续。其中一个原因是担心包括中国经济放缓、人民币疲软等宏观经济因素的影响。

但很多人最担心的是中国政府的监管。本为公司摇钱树的网游如今已经成为腾讯股票的负担,因为政府对整个网游行业的清理导致占公司收入40%的游戏业务发展前景充满不确定性。中国政府从3月起停止了对新游戏的审批,有关部门也没有透露游戏禁令何时才能结束。

政府也在收紧对互联网金融业务的管制,因为中国的借贷额已经达到了史上最高水平,政府正在尽力减少系统风险,但这恰恰是腾讯快速增长的业务板块。彭博的数据表明,分析师2月以来就因监管压力将腾讯2018年的收入预期下调20%。

腾讯正在逐步拓展公司的多元化经营。公司本月宣布结构调整,将云计算业务提升至和游戏及微信业务同等高度。此外,它还向多家创业公司投资了几十亿美元,投资范围涵盖租车、电子商务等方方面面。

腾讯一直在回购小量股票,但公司领导层并未对最近的大跌发表评论,亦没有报道表明他们个人增持了公司股票。彭博的监管备案文件显示,从9月12日到上周三,腾讯回购了大约相当于1.03亿美元的股票。

看涨者认为今年的困难形势不会影响腾讯在主要业务领域的主导地位,一旦管制放开,经济阻力减小,公司股价就能回升。尽管分析师预测腾讯年度收入将下滑,但彭博的跟踪数据显示,他们将腾讯股票12个月内的目标价位设定为增长60%。

“我们认为腾讯仍然和以前一样重要。”丹尼斯·巴里耶说,他是Cathay Innovation的联合创始人兼首席执行官,该公司总部位于旧金山,管理着10亿美元的资本。腾讯股价崩盘“不会改变腾讯公司在市场上的地位”,巴里耶说。

然而,哪怕一些长期看涨的人也对大量抄底持谨慎态度。腾讯未来12个月的市盈率已经从42%跌至23%,但仍然比过去10年中股价暴跌至谷底时要高。Facebook的市盈率是16,阿里巴巴的市盈率是21。

“现在确实很便宜。”米切尔·格林说,他是总部位于圣巴巴拉的Lead Edge Capital公司的创始合伙人,公司管理着15亿美元的资本。“但便宜的东西还能更便宜。”(财富中文网)

译者:Agatha

Is it time to catch the global stock market’s biggest falling knife?

For watchers of Tencent Holdings Ltd., it’s an increasingly pressing question. The Chinese internet giant’s record-breaking sell-off is getting worse, with last Thursday’s 6.8 percent rout bringing losses since late January to $252 billion — by far the biggest wipeout of shareholder wealth worldwide. The stock, one of the most widely held in emerging markets, has tumbled for an unprecedented 10 straight sessions.

As investors around the world debate whether the best days are over for the tech-led boom in global equities, Tencent has emerged as a key market bellwether. The company’s more than 67,000 percent return from its 2004 initial public offering through January trounced that of every other large-cap stock worldwide, and its slide this year presaged a steep drop in tech shares from Tokyo to New York. Some money managers say it’s too soon to call a bottom.

“While it’s a good company and we obviously still like it, at the moment it’s the proxy of all the things investors want to avoid,” said Virginie Robert, the founder and president of Paris-based Constance Associes, whose global tech fund beat 99 percent of peers tracked by Bloomberg this year. Robert, who has an underweight position in Tencent, said she’ll refrain from adding to holdings until the company provides more clarity on its business outlook.

Jane Yip, a spokeswoman for Tencent, didn’t respond to requests for comment.

Founded by billionaire Pony Ma in 1998, Tencent had until recently captivated investors with its massively popular online gaming business, payments system and WeChat social networking platform. The Shenzhen-based company’s integral role in the lives of hundreds of millions of Chinese helped propel average annual earnings growth of about 48 percent over the past decade, faster than Apple Inc.’s 35 percent.

Now questions are mounting over whether Tencent’s growth is sustainable. That’s partly because of macroeconomic concerns, including a slowing Chinese economy and a weakening yuan.

But the biggest worry for many observers is regulatory meddling from Beijing. The company’s cash cow — online gaming — has become a liability for the stock after an industrywide government crackdown left the business, which accounts for about 40 percent of Tencent’s revenue, clouded in uncertainty. The country halted approvals for new games in March and authorities have given little indication of when the ban will end.

Policy makers are also tightening restrictions on Tencent’s fast-growing internet finance business as they try to reduce systemic risks in an economy saddled with record levels of debt. The regulatory squeeze has contributed to a 20 percent drop in analysts’ 2018 earnings estimates since February, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Tencent is taking steps to diversify. The company announced a reorganization this month, elevating its cloud computing business to a level on par with gaming and WeChat. It has also invested billions in startups doing everything from ride hailing to e-commerce.

Tencent has been buying back small amounts of stock, though its leadership hasn’t commented on the recent losses or reported adding to holdings in their personal accounts. The company repurchased the equivalent of about $103 million of shares from Sept. 12 through last Wednesday, regulatory filings compiled by Bloomberg show.

Bulls argue that this year’s challenges have done nothing to threaten Tencent’s dominance in its key lines of business and that the stock will rally once regulatory and economic headwinds fade. Despite falling earnings forecasts, analyst share-price targets tracked by Bloomberg imply a more than 60 percent gain over the next 12 months.

“We feel Tencent is as important as ever,” said Denis Barrier, San Francisco-based co-founder and chief executive officer at Cathay Innovation, which manages $1 billion. The stock rout “is not going to change the position of its market share,” Barrier said.

Still, even some long-term bulls are wary of piling in. Tencent’s 12-month forward price-to-earnings multiple has dropped from about 42 to 23, but it’s still higher than when shares bottomed after major declines over the past decade. Facebook Inc.’s multiple is 16, while Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.’s is 21.

“They are cheap,” said Mitchell Green, the Santa Barbara-based founding partner of Lead Edge Capital, which manages $1.5 billion. “But what is cheap can get cheaper.”

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