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今年夏天算热?过了明年和后年再看看

Chris Morris 2018年08月20日

天气预报认为,这个阶段是“反常的热”,还不算人类应该担责的全球气候变暖问题。

2018年的夏天真的算是酷热,世界多地的气温都创纪录,一刻不得喘息。

坏消息是,据一项新预报,未来5年还将如此。

天气预报认为,这个阶段是“反常的热”,还不算人类应该担责的全球气候变暖问题。

发表在《自然》杂志网站的一份研究报告,认定这个星球的自然变暖趋势(不包括人类带来的温室气体效益影响)正在起变化。

过去十年的大部分时间里,海洋振荡之类的因素在减缓自然变暖趋势。但是,这些因素在变化,从而加速变暖进程,我们也将看到更多的高温纪录。

这个趋势下,地球已经经历了史上最热的4年。加州大学伯克利分校的一位追踪气候变化的研究者认为,我们恐怕再也回不到如2014年那般凉爽的天气了。

负责这项研究的科学家指出,尽管我们会看到变暖的提速——58%的机率地球整体气温在未来5年变得异常热,69%机率地球上的海洋变热——但还不是板上钉钉。

这份研究也没有把人称厄尔尼诺的气候现象考虑进去,这一现象也影响温度。

主导此项研究的科学家打趣说,现在开始囤积短裤应该是个好主意。

这份研究的联合作者、法国国家科学研究中心的科学家弗洛瑞安·塞韦莱克告诉华盛顿邮报:“我们发现在未来5年左右,极可能出现相较于反常寒冷的反常炎热气候。”(财富中文网)

译者:宣峰

Summer 2018 has been nothing short of brutal. Record temperatures have been set worldwide and we’ve seen little relief.

Bad news: None is on the way for the next five years, either, according to a new forecast.

Forecasters say the period will be ‘anomalously warm’ — and that’s on top of any global warming we humans are responsible for.

The study, which was published on Nature magazine’s website, postulates that the planet’s natural warming trend (which excludes the impact of greenhouse gasses introduced by humans) is set for a change.

For most of this decade, they say, factors such as oscillations in the oceans, have slowed down that natural warming. However, those factors are changing and that could actually accelerate the warming process, meaning more record temperatures are on the way.

This comes as Earth has already experienced the four hottest years in its history. And one researcher that tracks climate change at UC Berkeley believes it’s unlikely we’ll see temperatures as cool as they were in 2014 ever again.

The scientists in charge of this study note that while it’s likely we’ll see the acceleration of heating — there’s a 58% chance Earth’s overall temperature will be anomalously warm over the next five years, and a 69% chance Earth’s oceans will be — it’s not an absolute certainty.

The study also does not factor in the atmospheric condition known as El Niño, which also impacts temperatures.

Still, the scientists who conducted the research say it’s probably a good idea to stock up on shorts.

“What we found is that for the next five years or so, there is a high likelihood of an anomalously warm climate compared to anomalously cold,” Florian Sevellec, co-author of the study and a scientist at France’s National Center for Scientific Research, told the Washington Post.

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